A short article from our Associate – Murray Cook – highlighting the positive role that scenario planning and value creating systems can plan in strategy development…

It is a paradox that today in major cities such as London, even post ‘congestion-charge’, vehicle speed is slower and there are more vehicles on the road than prior to it being introduced! So what is going on?

The driver of this is our behaviour. We all love clicking the button to get products and food delivered immediately, hire rides and the like – we all really busy after all! However, this is driving an increased number of journeys – often with multiple suppliers, multiple visits and in the case of food delivery, short distances are being covered repeatedly. Can this continue in the light of our growing responsibility to make our cities and towns environmentally friendly and more sustainable for the communities who live and work there?

The mixture of behavioural changes, technology and completive responses gives rise to classic TUNA conditions (Turbulence, Uncertainty, Novelty and Ambiguity),causing high levels of disturbance in the system and complexity in creating future strategy.  How do you design a successful transportation strategy in the light of this level of turbulence?

At DKA we use Scenario Planning to articulate ‘plausible’ futures, by taking into account disruption, how it may play out and creating safe spaces for leadership teams to consider their present strategy in the light of these plausible futures. We help reframe the current strategy and surface the type of weak signals to look for, e.g. in transport, the rise of private commercial vehicles in cities, the impact of taxation changes on them and corresponding anticipatory regulation. 

These scenarios often challenge business models underpinning current strategy, and in doing so provoke different conversations about what that model might look like and how best to deal with disruption. One of the key findings in this space is how organisations traditionally seen as in competition with one another, might have to collaborate to manage disruption. One of the techniques we use to address this is working through Value Creating Systems (VCS). 

This approach expands thinking to consider how to grow the system’s value overall, as opposed to a more traditional win/lose strategic mindset. This, in conjunction with Scenario Planning provides a different lens with which to consider factors such as regulation, demographics etc. and to ensure that your current strategy is truly fit for purpose.

Murray Cook – DKA Associate

February 2020

Contact us to discuss how we can support your organisation cope with uncertainty and develop a fit-for purpose strategy – contact@devereauxkellyassociates.com